Latest Winthrop U. poll of SC voters shows flagging support for GOP and abortion bans (2024)

COLUMBIA — South Carolina Republicans Sen. Tim Scott and Gov. Henry McMaster have seen their approval ratings drop by double digits since the fall, new polling by Winthrop University shows.

Whether those numbers have any impact on this November’s elections is a matter of debate.

Polling data released June 4 by Winthrop pollster Scott Huffmon shows both men have seen substantial declines in their standings among the general population since November.

Scott, whose approval rating was at 52 percent among South Carolina residents in the fall, has seen his approval rating fall nearly a dozen points, to 41 percent in the online poll conducted by the university in Rock Hill.

McMaster’s approval rating among the general public has fallen by nine points in six months, from 50 percent to 41 percent.

The Winthrop poll is not an indication of how well either of the two — neither of whom are up for election this November — would do in an election. Because the poll surveys the general population of South Carolina rather than likely voters, the Winthrop numbers are considered more of a barometer of how the public perceives their leaders, Huffmon said in an interview.

“Compared to registered and likely voters, there are a lot more who don’t know,” he said. “That’s just kind of a familiar trend.”

The results are based on online surveys with 1,174 South Carolinians reached May 8-21. The data shows a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 2.86 percent points, indicating a 95 percent confidence level, according to the school.

But the Winthrop numbers can show how politics and public policy play into how leaders are more broadly perceived among South Carolinians, especially given the last few months of presidential season politics.

When Scott first announced he was running against former President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination for president last spring, Scott’s approval rating in Winthrop polling was around 41 percent, though 30 percent had no opinion.

By November, his approval rating jumped to 52 percent among all South Carolinians, while his disapproval rating had fallen by five percentage points — a sign his aggressive campaigning in South Carolina had been paying off.

But Trump, who remains popular among Republicans in South Carolina, has arguably caused his numbers to drop again among the broader public, which is 45-45 split for and against him in Winthrop polling.

After endorsing Trump earlier this spring and aggressively campaigning for him against fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley, Scott’s disapproval rating — while small — ticked up several points.

“First off, running against Trump and now hitching himself to Trump, you know, those are two different groups to anger,” Huffmon said.

Haley experienced something similar. Polling at 59 percent in November, Haley’s approval has fallen to 48 percent in the recent Winthrop poll.

One person bucking the trend is U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham.

While his approval rating has barely budged from his November rating of 36 percent, his disapproval rating had fallen over that time span from 47 percent to 40 percent last month.

For McMaster — who, in the public eye, is essentially a figurehead for all of state government — approval ratings also coincide with shifts in public opinion around topics like firearms and abortion.

Polling at 50 percent approval among South Carolinians in November, McMaster’s approval rating now sits at just 41 percent, though 1 in 4 people surveyed said they weren’t sure how well he was doing.

That slide in polling comes with declining public support for South Carolina’s already unpopular ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. In May 2023, just 37 percent of South Carolinians said they supported such a ban.

One year later, only 31 percent of South Carolinians still support the ban.

Other issues, like guns, could also play a factor in his declining approval. While the Winthrop poll did not survey any firearms-related issues this spring, McMaster signed a bill earlier this year allowing permitless carry of handguns by any eligible resident over the age of 18.

Earlier polling on the issue by Winthrop found a vast majority of South Carolinians not only favored raising the minimum age to purchase a gun to 21 years old (75 percent), but wanted increased criminal background checks (84 percent) as well.

Other issues polled indicate that legislative actions often bely public opinion. As state lawmakers finalize restrictions on race-based curriculum in public schools, some 57 percent of South Carolinians said they would favor a hypothetical law {span}requiring undergraduates at public colleges and universities to take a course that teaches diversity, equity and inclusion.

{span}Others appeared to conflict with the posture of conservative leadership. Fewer than one-third of respondents said they believed Congress should declare the United States a Christian nation, though one-fifth were undecided.

{span}While a plurality of South Carolinians (41 percent) support Israel in its current conflict with Palestine, one-third of respondents said they were undecided, while about 18 percent said they sided with the Palestinians.

While polling the general public is important to understand the importance of issues, Huffmon said, the May numbers are unlikely to provide much insight on how voters will respond in the upcoming elections.

That, he said, will be decided by the people who actually show up to vote in the general election, which is typically fewer than three-quarters of all registered voters in presidential election years.

Currently, just over 82 percent of all eligible adults in South Carolina are actually registered, most of whom will likely be voting for candidates who were chosen for them in primary elections a vast majority of the state population did not participate in.

That’s why public opinion might not mirror reality. In the current system, primary voters — not the public at large — decide the direction of the state.

“They’re more tuned in,” said Huffmon. “Among the general population, you’ve got more people who are just not paying as much attention.”